Spill the Beans

ORIONTHEHUNTER said:
Yeah I'm a moron who has a sheep and a goat and a dad with a rocky, desert, and goat. Tell me with all your odds calculations how many have you drawn? The guy earlier was claiming greater odds because of his weighted points, it doesn't work like that. Your also the moron that thinks the weighted points are the same as bonus points.
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Because knowing the odds made you draw those tags. Yeah ok O’Rainmanthehunter

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ORIONTHEHUNTER said:
Yeah I'm a moron who has a sheep and a goat and a dad with a rocky, desert, and goat. Tell me with all your odds calculations how many have you drawn? The guy earlier was claiming greater odds because of his weighted points, it doesn't work like that. Your also the moron that thinks the weighted points are the same as bonus points.
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I'll ask again: How should the odds be calculated? If we are incorrect, show us how it's done.

What were the odds of drawing S39 archery last year? Be specific and show your work like the people you are arguing with.
 
SanJuan said:
I'll ask again: How should the odds be calculated? If we are incorrect, show us how it's done.

What were the odds of drawing S39 archery last year? Be specific and show your work like the people you are arguing with.
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Your odds get better when you apply for hunts at the bottom of the list. These could be due to a lot of private land, low population, very physical hunt, very low success, poor genetics, combination of all, etc. Fewer people applying is the only way to guesstimate your chances. If you just want to sheep hunt, don’t want a big ram, willing to not punch a tag, etc. Those are the hunts to apply for.

By the time they invert your number, convert it, and divide it by your weighted points someone with 3 preference and 0 weighted points could get your tag.

Best bet, pray to the Hunting Gods and hope Lady Luck is with you. 😎😎😎
 
LIK2HNT said:
Your odds get better when you apply for hunts at the bottom of the list. These could be due to a lot of private land, low population, very physical hunt, very low success, poor genetics, combination of all, etc. Fewer people applying is the only way to guesstimate your chances. If you just want to sheep hunt, don’t want a big ram, willing to not punch a tag, etc. Those are the hunts to apply for.

By the time they invert your number, convert it, and divide it by your weighted points someone with 3 preference and 0 weighted points could get your tag.

Best bet, pray to the Hunting Gods and hope Lady Luck is with you. 😎😎😎
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FYI - most of the sheep in S39 are dead. According to CPW there are only 12 sheep left. I've asked the biologist and they are keeping close tabs on it but they don't know what's going on. They said there are mature rams available to hunt but I wouldn't want to be chasing only 1-2 rams even with only one tag per year.

Point being - there are multiple tags with greater than 10% odds. These were just two I'd already researched and knew off the top of my head.
 
SanJuan said:
I'll ask again: How should the odds be calculated? If we are incorrect, show us how it's done.

What were the odds of drawing S39 archery last year? Be specific and show your work like the people you are arguing with.
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One of the secrets to helping someone draw was already posted by another member who has drawn more than one tag. Odds shouldn't be calculated in the sheep draw because your weighted points have no bearing on your random number assignment, its reversal, or the tile assignment. You can sit here and say you have 10% odds all day long, but do you really? At the end of the day it all comes down to random ass luck and your random number starting with zeros or ones
 
LIK2HNT said:
Your odds get better when you apply for hunts at the bottom of the list. These could be due to a lot of private land, low population, very physical hunt, very low success, poor genetics, combination of all, etc. Fewer people applying is the only way to guesstimate your chances. If you just want to sheep hunt, don’t want a big ram, willing to not punch a tag, etc. Those are the hunts to apply for.

By the time they invert your number, convert it, and divide it by your weighted points someone with 3 preference and 0 weighted points could get your tag.

Best bet, pray to the Hunting Gods and hope Lady Luck is with you. 😎😎😎
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There was a unit like that. They finally quit issuing a tag for it after years of nobody even seeing sheep.
 
ORIONTHEHUNTER said:
One of the secrets to helping someone draw was already posted by another member who has drawn more than one tag. Odds shouldn't be calculated in the sheep draw because your weighted points have no bearing on your random number assignment, its reversal, or the tile assignment. You can sit here and say you have 10% odds all day long, but do you really? At the end of the day it all comes down to random ass luck and your random number starting with zeros or ones
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Maybe the weighted points don't matter. I'm not arguing that because it's beside the point. Even a random draw still has odds.

You're just avoiding answering the question because there is no way to calculate the odds in a way that supports your statement that my odds are greatly inflated.

Kinda like you avoided answering the question of why you lied about getting that desert sheep tag for your client.
 
Seems to me the weighted points DO matter because they essentially generate a new number, thus creating another “chance”. Right?
 
LIK2HNT said:
Your odds get better when you apply for hunts at the bottom of the list. These could be due to a lot of private land, low population, very physical hunt, very low success, poor genetics, combination of all, etc. Fewer people applying is the only way to guesstimate your chances. If you just want to sheep hunt, don’t want a big ram, willing to not punch a tag, etc. Those are the hunts to apply for.

By the time they invert your number, convert it, and divide it by your weighted points someone with 3 preference and 0 weighted points could get your tag.

Best bet, pray to the Hunting Gods and hope Lady Luck is with you. 😎😎😎
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I'm aware of why the odds are better for some hunts. Most don't want to tie into a low-success rate hunt. For the archery tag I had in 2010, the next 25 tags went unfilled over a 13-year period. I, for one, would rather take my chances on the mountain than in the draw.
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Bluehair said:
Seems to me the weighted points DO matter because they essentially generate a new number, thus creating another “chance”. Right?
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Not really if your random number is 827100 and someone else gets 000671 even if you had 12 weighted points your number isnt getting lower than the 000671 so your not getting the tag
 
ORIONTHEHUNTER said:
Not really if your random number is 827100 and someone else gets 000671 even if you had 12 weighted points your number isnt getting lower than the 000671 so your not getting the tag
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No argument from me that the original inverted number is critical. But in order to calculate the odds (which I am way too lazy to do), you need to double the number of chances for everyone with WP’s, so it’s not just a simple matter of dividing by the number of applicants.

It always pisses me off when Kate draws with 3+2.

 
I don’t understand why they don’t simplify the whole process by treating it like a raffle. If you have X amount of weighted points then your name gets thrown in the pot that amount of times, then scramble the pot and do the draw.
What am I missing here?
 
How about the 3 people who draw the random numbers out of the hat? Those poor bastards must get everything from bribes to threats :ROFLMAO:
 
So like what the hell. Two years ago with 25 points I put in for 61 elk muzzy. Last year was 76 early rifle. This year unit 40 muzzy with my 27 points. I also decided to put in for NV late deer after all. I have 16 points and might as well try! You can't win if you don't try......but I'm nearing the end of my patience!
 
CHWino_1 said:
So like what the hell. Two years ago with 25 points I put in for 61 elk muzzy. Last year was 76 early rifle. This year unit 40 muzzy with my 27 points. I also decided to put in for NV late deer after all. I have 16 points and might as well try! You can't win if you don't try......but I'm nearing the end of my patience!
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Which Nevada deer hunt did you apply for?
 

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