What are the odds?!?!

Huntnful · May 13, 2022

I'm blown away right now!! I drew a 16C New Mexico archery elk tag just a few weeks ago. And now, today, I drew a Utah random tag for archery elk in the Central Mtns, Manti!! I also drew a late season archery deer tag in NM in a decent unit. I may never see a draw year like this again! So pumped!!!

The deer tag was 8% odds. The NM elk was 5%. The random UT tag was less than 1%.

grizzly · May 13, 2022

Congrats, that's awesome!

(PS. it's .004%)

Huntnful · May 13, 2022

grizzly said:
Congrats, that's awesome!

(PS. it's .004%)

Thank you!! And that's so crazy. Thank you for calculating that, I was genuinely curious was the actual statistical odds were haha.

Bigfoot 1 · May 13, 2022

grizzly · May 13, 2022

Huntnful said:
Thank you!! And that's so crazy. Thank you for calculating that, I was genuinely curious was the actual statistical odds were haha.

I had a 16D archery tag several years ago and was into a ton of bulls. I don't know anything about 16C, but if they're similar at all, you're in for a fun hunt. My brother drew Manti muzzleloader elk this year so we'll be down there a few weeks after you're done. Good luck this year.

Huntnful · May 13, 2022

grizzly said:
I had a 16D archery tag several years ago and was into a ton of bulls. I don't know anything about 16C, but if they're similar at all, you're in for a fun hunt. My brother drew Manti muzzleloader elk this year so we'll be down there a few weeks after you're done. Good luck this year.

Very cool!! I'm going in NM starting Sept. 1-7th and then head to Utah for the remainder of the Utah season. I was originally going to hunt 11-12 days in NM, but those plans obviously got changed haha.

ciller160 · May 14, 2022

grizzly said:
Congrats, that's awesome!

(PS. it's .004%)

Let me know if I’m doing this right. So far I’ve drawn 4 tags this year.
The first has about 13.5% chance. The second was about 17% chance. The third was about 35% chance. And the fourth was a 1% chance. Does that mean the odds of drawing all four on the same year was .008%?

WVHUNTER · May 15, 2022

BLooDTRaCKeR · May 15, 2022

Musta been paying your tithing…congrats

heywouldya · May 15, 2022

Go buy a lottery ticket! Congrats on your draws

idahomuleyhunter · May 15, 2022

ciller160 said:
Let me know if I’m doing this right. So far I’ve drawn 4 tags this year.
The first has about 13.5% chance. The second was about 17% chance. The third was about 35% chance. And the fourth was a 1% chance. Does that mean the odds of drawing all four on the same year was .008%?

Assuming you aren't hitting on the bonus pass in Utah.

El Gringo · May 15, 2022

grizzly said:
I had a 16D archery tag several years ago and was into a ton of bulls. I don't know anything about 16C, but if they're similar at all, you're in for a fun hunt. My brother drew Manti muzzleloader elk this year so we'll be down there a few weeks after you're done. Good luck this year.

Congratulations on the tags, that’s pretty incredible.

16C is not like 16D at all. Reach out to me if you want, I’ve hunted it a few times.

Warbo · May 15, 2022

Huntnful said:
I'm blown away right now!! I drew a 16C New Mexico archery elk tag just a few weeks ago. And now, today, I drew a Utah random tag for archery elk in the Central Mtns, Manti!! I also drew a late season archery deer tag in NM in a decent unit. I may never see a draw year like this again! So pumped!!!

The deer tag was 8% odds. The NM elk was 5%. The random UT tag was less than 1%.

Congrats that’s awesome!! I got way lucky too and drew a LE muzzy deer tag for the rut with 0 points. My season dates are November 12-27th so it should be a dang fun hunt.

Huntnful · May 15, 2022

BLooDTRaCKeR said:
Musta been paying your tithing…congrats

Nah, I'm not religious. But I try to be a generally good person and it's always paid off in one way or another!!

Huntnful · May 15, 2022

El Gringo said:
Congratulations on the tags, that’s pretty incredible.

16C is not like 16D at all. Reach out to me if you want, I’ve hunted it a few times.

Thank you, I appreciate that a lot!!!

Warbo said:
Congrats that’s awesome!! I got way lucky too and drew a LE muzzy deer tag for the rut with 0 points. My season dates are November 12-27th so it should be a dang fun hunt.

That's AWESOME!! That will be such a fun hunt! I actually set up a muzzy and got it dialed in to 400 yards with the anticipation of drawing the "100%" odds muzzy tag I applied for also. Didn't even draw the tag hahaha, and then drew a less than 1% elk tag hahaha.

LIK2HNT · May 15, 2022

Well I think you need to factor in ALL the hunts you applied for this year. More hunt you apply for, the greater your odds of getting tags.

Huntnful · May 15, 2022

LIK2HNT said:
Well I think you need to factor in ALL the hunts you applied for this year. More hunt you apply for, the greater your odds of getting tags.

Oh true!! That's a good point!!

Warbo · May 15, 2022

Huntnful said:
That's AWESOME!! That will be such a fun hunt! I actually set up a muzzy and got it dialed in to 400 yards with the anticipation of drawing the "100%" odds muzzy tag I applied for also. Didn't even draw the tag hahaha, and then drew a less than 1% elk tag hahaha.

Yep the unit I drew is almost all private ground. It made me verify I knew that when I applied for it. The owners don’t really give permission either, I’m just lucky my grandpa owns a big ranch in the unit.

american_jackal · May 16, 2022

Good to see someone has some luck. Keep us posted on how it goes.

Largebull · May 16, 2022

Congrats ,I only put in Home State this year and Drew a tag for Elk with only 7 Points that takes 24 or 25 . 3A 3Cearly rifle Bull in the rut . Less than .09 percent chance for 25 tags . guess some bodies gotta get em. That would be Arizona by the way!

Largebull · May 16, 2022

I forgot to add , 7 must be my magic #. 4 years ago I got a late Kaibab tag seen in my avatar, with only 7 points also. I beleive in luck! They got me on the Sheep tag tho, 29 Points going into this draw. Also Drew a Goulds tag with only 11 points 4 years ago and in 1996 a Early bull rifle tag in Unit 1 with just 3 points, My first bull hunt.

joevegas · May 16, 2022

Huntnful said:
I'm blown away right now!! I drew a 16C New Mexico archery elk tag just a few weeks ago. And now, today, I drew a Utah random tag for archery elk in the Central Mtns, Manti!! I also drew a late season archery deer tag in NM in a decent unit. I may never see a draw year like this again! So pumped!!!

The deer tag was 8% odds. The NM elk was 5%. The random UT tag was less than 1%.

Congrats man that's awesome!! Hopefully, you didn't apply for Nevada or Colorado, or you might get more good/bad news!!

Gator · May 16, 2022

I had 5 Big Game hunts one year, 2 in NM 2B one for deer horseback, then a Bull Elk a Pack in as close to the area we needed to be Unit 51
0ne Wyo Unit H Back country hunt on horses and mules
One Az Elk Bull 22N late hunt with horses and mules
one climbing the Mtn every day on the Ut Rifle Buck.
A pheasant Hunt in SD
3 horseback and 2 walk in type hunts and chasing the dogs around killing pheasants. Thought I was on the moon. By the time they all was done I was diesel poor(hauling that Horse trailer sure wasn't cheap) and I was worn out physically mental and body.
That last hunt was a B!tch.
Sometimes to many tags isn't a ball.

Huntnful · May 16, 2022

joevegas said:
Congrats man that's awesome!! Hopefully, you didn't apply for Nevada or Colorado, or you might get more good/bad news!!

hahaha, I just went for points in both NV & CO, good thing!

I have 5 deer tags & 3 elk tags this year. That is PLENTY lol.

Largebull · May 16, 2022

Huntnful said:
hahaha, I just went for points in both NV & CO, good thing!

I have 5 deer tags & 3 elk tags this year. That is PLENTY lol.

How many are Quality Hunts? At 66 I take quality over Quantity! Good Luck!

Huntnful · May 16, 2022

Largebull said:
How many are Quality Hunts? At 66 I take quality over Quantity! Good Luck!

Probably only the Manti elk tag would be considered "Quality" honestly. But I turn general hunts into pretty fun hunts. I'm 31 and like gaining experience from general tags so I can capitalize when I do get some good tags at an older age. In the last three years, I've spent over 250 days in the field. Either scouting or hunting. So when those premium tags come, I'll be ready!

Largebull · May 17, 2022

Way to do it!

Huntnful · May 17, 2022

Largebull said:
How many are Quality Hunts? At 66 I take quality over Quantity! Good Luck!

These were all on true OTC tags. I killed the buck on left on my 17th day of hunting in 2019. The 30" buck on the right, I found on July 9th and killed him on Oct. 5th 2020. The middle buck was day 6 of a 7 day backpack hunt.

Weiserbucks · May 17, 2022

Who the hell talked you into applying in Utah????

Huntnful · May 17, 2022

Weiserbucks said:
Who the hell talked you into applying in Utah????

Hahaha what a crazy chain of events. First I'm just buying a rifle from you 5 months ago, then you're the sole reason I draw a 19 point tag with 2 points hahaha. Thanks Justin!!

Largebull · May 17, 2022

Huntnful said:
View attachment 76444These were all on true OTC tags. I killed the buck on left on my 17th day of hunting in 2019. The 30" buck on the right, I found on July 9th and killed him on Oct. 5th 2020. The middle buck was day 6 of a 7 day backpack hunt.

Them is some great Bucks Congrats!