2020 Big Game Stats are up--FINALLY!

Chances of drawing a sheep tag are getting a bit better each year.

Looks like we lost 143 max point holders from the sheep draws from 2019 to 2020.

From 2010 to 2020 we lost 1,173 max point holders for the sheep draw.
 
Hopefully they work there way down a couple points in the coming years since I have been applying for sheep since I was of age and if that’s the case I could be a max point holder and get to enjoy hunting desert sheep for myself at an age that I can actually enjoy it.
 
I hear you. Same boat. I was 2nd alternate in 2011?? or so for the Sheep Hole's and you know how that turned out--still waiting.
 
I hear you. Same boat. I was 2nd alternate in 2011?? or so for the Sheep Hole's and you know how that turned out--still waiting.
Should be thankful you didn't draw the Sheetholes!!! I've had two friends draw that tag. One hunted for weeks on end and never had a chance at a ram. The other friend killed one, but wasn't a solid ram. I'd rather wait 10 more years and get a tag for one of the better units.
 
Should be thankful you didn't draw the Sheetholes!!! I've had two friends draw that tag. One hunted for weeks on end and never had a chance at a ram. The other friend killed one, but wasn't a solid ram. I'd rather wait 10 more years and get a tag for one of the better units.
Yeah I have heard that it’s more like the **** hole instead of sheep hole haha, much the less a sheep tag in the pocket is better then never having one in my opinion at least. I also have a buddy that hunted it over 20 days and said it was a difficult hunt and killed a ram on the smaller side, but he has a desert and I don’t haha.
 
Yeah I have heard that it’s more like the **** hole instead of sheep hole haha, much the less a sheep tag in the pocket is better then never having one in my opinion at least. I also have a buddy that hunted it over 20 days and said it was a difficult hunt and killed a ram on the smaller side, but he has a desert and I don’t haha.
With my max pts in CA and 20+ points in other states for sheep I'd be happy to wait for a better hunt than to simply just put a mediocre sheep tag in my pocket.
 
Hopefully they work there way down a couple points in the coming years since I have been applying for sheep since I was of age and if that’s the case I could be a max point holder and get to enjoy hunting desert sheep for myself at an age that I can actually enjoy it.
There were 1,689 max point holders vying for 19 tags in the preference quota. Not likely to drop in the next few decades.

They need to issue a lot more tags.
 
Yeah I have heard that it’s more like the **** hole instead of sheep hole haha, much the less a sheep tag in the pocket is better then never having one in my opinion at least. I also have a buddy that hunted it over 20 days and said it was a difficult hunt and killed a ram on the smaller side, but he has a desert and I don’t haha.
Amen.....the sheepholes have no access to speak of. I have flown it with F&G doing guzzler work....
 
Snoop dog, this is for you...
59B4277C-3119-46CC-B032-20DADD9DE677.jpeg
 
Beautiful! Just twisting the knife, aren't you? Guided or just had all your hunting buddies join the once-in-a-lifetime event?
I hunted with Dry Creek Outfitters, Matt St. Martin. Basically hunted with Matt and his father, Cliff and Brooks Stiltz. The boys were along to learn about sheep hunting and help with the packing. The fellow on the left, Carlos, is a great local guy who helped out, even though he’s not a guide. When he heard we got a ram, he came out to see it and be part of helping.

The Dry Creek group are excellent sheep hunters and great guys to share a camp with.
 
Thanks CAelknuts. Heard good things about them and Anderson. I intend to enjoy the hell out of the hunt, if I ever....
 
I don't know them but whenever I've read about the few lucky devils each year who get a tag, Anderson seems to guide most followed by Dry Creek. Always read/heard good about these outfits. But if you have some experience you'd like to share...
 
I don't know them but whenever I've read about the few lucky devils each year who get a tag, Anderson seems to guide most followed by Dry Creek. Always read/heard good about these outfits. But if you have some experience you'd like to share...
I only have 2nd hand info. If you wanted to chat with someone specifically feel free to PM me.
 
With my max pts in CA and 20+ points in other states for sheep I'd be happy to wait for a better hunt than to simply just put a mediocre sheep tag in my pocket.
I hear you there but what if you weren’t max points ?
 
If you don’t have max points, you don’t have to worry about drawing in CA. It won’t happen in your lifetime.
 
I hear you there but what if you weren’t max points ?
Then draw any sheep tag you can get! Don't wait.

There are a ton of max point applicants in numerous states that will go to their graves with max points. Everyone has and needs a different strategy to draw tags, especially sheep tags. I'm 49 y/o with max points (in CA) and will hold off until I can draw a better quality sheep tag. At some point I may apply strictly based on better draw odds and age depending I may have to hire an outfitter/guide. If I can draw while I'm still in good shape I'll probably go DIY.
 
I don't know them but whenever I've read about the few lucky devils each year who get a tag, Anderson seems to guide most followed by Dry Creek. Always read/heard good about these outfits. But if you have some experience you'd like to share...
I considered all options except one, from hunting on my own to Kika, Dry Creek and another. The only choice that was never an option was Terry Anderson. I’ve had 2 brief dealings with him over the years and based on my personal interactions with him, he was never an option. I’d have hunted alone, by myself; before I’d consider him.

I don’t think I could have made a better choice than going with Dry Creek Outfitters. Of the 6 sheep hunts I’ve made over the years, they were the best I’ve hunted with, by far. We saw about 150 sheep on my hunt, with probably 50+ rams. We saw about 25-30 rams the day I shot mine. I had multiple opportunities to shoot rams over the time we hunted, no pressure at all to shoot any ram until the time, and ram, was right.
 
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Great ram!!
Did both my sheep hunts last year DIY. Had a great time with my daughter, best friend, and son in law on both hunts. Hardest part is judging them, but shot what looks good to you and you will be happy.
 
Great ram!!
Did both my sheep hunts last year DIY. Had a great time with my daughter, best friend, and son in law on both hunts. Hardest part is judging them, but shot what looks good to you and you will be happy.
Congratulations on drawing two sheep tags, what states did you draw in? California?
 
Utah Rocky and Nevada Nelson Desert.
Did a story in the sheep forum.
Proves anyone can get lucky.
11 Utah points and 24 Nevada points.
Like the saying: No chance, no dance!!
Wish you all luck.
 
Utah Rocky and Nevada Nelson Desert.
Did a story in the sheep forum.
Proves anyone can get lucky.
11 Utah points and 24 Nevada points.
Like the saying: No chance, no dance!!
Wish you all luck.
I remember now! Pretty amazing hopefully I have some of your luck in the draws this year. You apply for sheep in California as well?
 
Utah Rocky and Nevada Nelson Desert.
Did a story in the sheep forum.
Proves anyone can get lucky.
11 Utah points and 24 Nevada points.
Like the saying: No chance, no dance!!
Wish you all luck.
I also remember now watching your Rocky hunt on YouTube
 
My daughter did the filming and photos. She has started a YouTube channel to promote women in hunting and outdoors.
Vallauri Huntress
I think she did a great job even though she has a lot to learn and better equipment to purchase.
Most the photos in the February Huntin Fool story I did were her’s.

Sorry, I had 21 Nevada point not 24.
 
My daughter did the filming and photos. She has started a YouTube channel to promote women in hunting and outdoors.
Vallauri Huntress
I think she did a great job even though she has a lot to learn and better equipment to purchase.
Most the photos in the February Huntin Fool story I did were her’s.

Sorry, I had 21 Nevada point not 24.
that’s awesome is the desert sheep hunt on YouTube as well? I wouldn’t mind watching it specially since I have seen the Utah Rocky sheep hunt of yours.
 
Chances of drawing a sheep tag are getting a bit better each year.

Looks like we lost 143 max point holders from the sheep draws from 2019 to 2020.

From 2010 to 2020 we lost 1,173
I considered all options except one, from hunting on my own to Kika, Dry Creek and another. The only choice that was never an option was Terry Anderson. I’ve had 2 brief dealings with him over the years and based on my personal interactions with him, he was never an option. I’d have hunted alone, by myself; before I’d consider him.

I don’t think I could have made a better choice than going with Dry Creek Outfitters. Of the 6 sheep hunts I’ve made over the years, they were the best I’ve hunted with, by far. We saw about 150 sheep on my hunt, with probably 50+ rams. We saw about 25-30 rams the day I shot mine. I had multiple opportunities to shoot rams over the time we hunted, no pressure at all to shoot any ram until the time, and ram, was right.
Cliff (Dry Creek) will be my only option, you made the right choice.
 
Do the math - Max point holders 1689

1438 applied in max point pool for 19 tags
If numbers stayed the same it would take 75.6 years to clear them

As stateabove there are actually 1689 max point holders (251) applied for a point only

If the max point pool stays the same and all applied for a hunt... 1689/19 It would take 88.89 years to clear them all

27 total tags - if all went to max point holders it would take 1689/27 62.55 years

If you were 16 when the point system started, you are now 34... so if you have really bad luck and the numbers stay the same you will be a minimum of 96 years old when you draw... ??‍♂️

With that said if you don’t apply you will never draw... I drew a Elk tag that had 1-3994 odds
 
Do the math - Max point holders 1689

1438 applied in max point pool for 19 tags
If numbers stayed the same it would take 75.6 years to clear them

As stateabove there are actually 1689 max point holders (251) applied for a point only

If the max point pool stays the same and all applied for a hunt... 1689/19 It would take 88.89 years to clear them all

27 total tags - if all went to max point holders it would take 1689/27 62.55 years

If you were 16 when the point system started, you are now 34... so if you have really bad luck and the numbers stay the same you will be a minimum of 96 years old when you draw... ??‍♂️

With that said if you don’t apply you will never draw... I drew a Elk tag that had 1-3994 odds
You keep assuming “if the numbers” stay the same. That’s not even close to reality. The numbers seem to be dropping significantly every year. Yes, it may take decades to draw, but it’s not going to be half a century.
 
You keep assuming “if the numbers” stay the same. That’s not even close to reality. The numbers seem to be dropping significantly every year. Yes, it may take decades to draw, but it’s not going to be half a century.
Not assuming just showing the math based on the numbers today. Yes more than 19-27 will drop off based old age or even missing a draw year by mistake. Realty is more likely 30-40 years to clear max point holders, so decades as you are stating. That is assuming draw sheep tags stay at 27 and don’t drop. I also stated if you don’t apply you will never draw. I apply in many states for sheep, elk, deer, etc. I buy raffle tickets... why because you never know.
good luck in all your draws.
 
I have a question that I have never had a clear answer for. I was fortunate enough to draw a sheep tag the year before last, I did have max points but moved to Nevada years ago, so I drew nonresident does Ca put nonresident max point people in with the residents or was I put in with people with less than max for those couple of tags?
 
Do the math - Max point holders 1689

1438 applied in max point pool for 19 tags
If numbers stayed the same it would take 75.6 years to clear them

As stateabove there are actually 1689 max point holders (251) applied for a point only

If the max point pool stays the same and all applied for a hunt... 1689/19 It would take 88.89 years to clear them all

27 total tags - if all went to max point holders it would take 1689/27 62.55 years

If you were 16 when the point system started, you are now 34... so if you have really bad luck and the numbers stay the same you will be a minimum of 96 years old when you draw... ??‍♂️

With that said if you don’t apply you will never draw... I drew a Elk tag that had 1-3994 odds

I created a pretty big spreadsheet of all the sheep draw data for the last 11 years. Here's what these data have yielded:

-The percentage of max point applicants apply for points only has been very similar every year at an avg of 14%.
-We loose on average approx 5.2% of max point applicants per year.
-Over the last 10 years we have lost approx 41% of the max pt holders
-If numbers remain somewhat static we'll have less than 1,000 max point holders by 2030, but I expect this number to be lower as many of the max point applicants leave the state, stop applying, and likely getting too old to hunt.
-
 
Here is my 2008 Sheephole Ram. I went with Terry Anderson. Don Anderson does guide for Terry and Don is also a Taxidermist. The Sheepholes is the worst hunt, but you got the best odds of drawing!!

View attachment 35310
That is why applied too, because I was told it was tough and best odds. I'm not into records, but would love to kill the best, legal animal I can find. Same with my antelope tag, didn't need a record, just wanted fun and opportunity.
 
Best odds this year, like in recent years, will be the White Mountains hunt. In 2020, the ratio of max pt applicants to Preference Point Tag Quota was a tad over 37:1.
 
Ha, you'd have to be bad with numbers or not understand simple math if you didn't/couldn't recognize that!

D,you should focus on drawing that tag. You’re in good enough shape to do that hunt and it’s supposed to have a lot of rams. Biggest challenge is the altitude.
 
Do the math - Max point holders 1689

1438 applied in max point pool for 19 tags
If numbers stayed the same it would take 75.6 years to clear them

As stateabove there are actually 1689 max point holders (251) applied for a point only

If the max point pool stays the same and all applied for a hunt... 1689/19 It would take 88.89 years to clear them all

27 total tags - if all went to max point holders it would take 1689/27 62.55 years

If you were 16 when the point system started, you are now 34... so if you have really bad luck and the numbers stay the same you will be a minimum of 96 years old when you draw... ??‍♂️

With that said if you don’t apply you will never draw... I drew a Elk tag that had 1-3994 odds
I guess depending on your birthday you could be 35 right now.
 
D,you should focus on drawing that tag. You’re in good enough shape to do that hunt and it’s supposed to have a lot of rams. Biggest challenge is the altitude.
I've summitted a few of CA's 14ers. In 2009 I summited White Mtn peak and it was nothing like the other peaks I've ascended. I got really sick on the ascent, but made it. The main issue is that the trailhead is at 11,700 feet, whereas a lot of other trailheads are much lower. Starting at such a high elevation doesn't give most folks time to acclimate, unless you spend a week or so at 10k feet beforehand. IMO a lot of folks apply for the White Mtn unit not having any idea how brutal the hunt is. Not to mention, I'd prefer a DBHS hunt in the more typically habitats of the lower desert country.
 
Max pt. sheep apps, 2017-1967,2018-1893, 2019-1800, 2020-1689.. dropping about 100 guys/year...possible larger drop in 2021 due to covid sadly, but still a long ways to get thru the max guys then look at how many are 1 point behind? @62 with max pts. i have at least 10 more years of applying. imo, if you dont have max pts, you should apply to any unit with 1 tag, most max point guys wont due that.
 
I've been running the sheep math for a few years and here are the max point holders since 2009. I've taken these data and extrapolated to 2040 using the 5.2% average annual attrition rate of max point holders and came up with the second table below.

IMO most max point holders are on the older side and I optimistically think that the numbers of max point applicants I am showing in the second table are on the high side. Plus we're loosing max point applicants to relocation out of state and a simple loss of desire to continue to pursue tags, especially a sheep tag.

YearMax Pt Apps% Decrease in max pt apps
20093059
201028626.4%
201127464.1%
201226214.6%
201324317.2%
201422617.0%
201521654.2%
201620565.0%
201719674.3%
201818764.6%
201918322.3%
202016897.8%
AVG5.2%


YearEstimated Max Pt Apps
20211600
20221517
20231437
20241362
20251290
20261223
20271159
20281098
20291040
2030986
2031934
2032885
2033839
2034795
2035753
2036714
2037676
2038641
2039607
2040575
 
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the moving out of state factor is a great point. Funny, everyone thinks Ca. is a high tax state. Motleyfool just ran the numbers based on sales tax, state income tax and property tax. Ca. ranked 41st lowest due to property tax. But let the mass exodus continue, frankly all my buddies in ca. put in for multiple state draws and never for ca. heck I just drew AZ. archery bull tag with 3 points. 2 buddies drew back to back bull tags with the second year with no points due to az. new 50% random tag change which may happen here someday.
 
+1 Dry Creek outfitters, my son got a random draw sheep tag in 2013 with 6pts. He got a good ram with dry creek, I can’t say enough good things about that outfit.

I also agree max point holders will fall off at an accelerated pace. Most of us are going to be too old or die before we get a tag.
the state has the stats on hunter demographics and if they published or some one did a Foia for that data, someone could prove my theory. That must of us 1700 maxies were wise enough to put in that first year because of our interest in sheep hunting . Sheep hunters made up a 1-2% of hunters in California back then. There are more wanna-be’s now so can’t go off current interest levels.

just saying that the drop out, fade out, and die out will accelerate. Personally I probably have 10-12 years left on the sheep hunting odometer ?
 
My stats show that the last max point holders for sheep should last for 47 more years...that mean everyone with less than max points will affectively have zero points for sheep for 47 more years :(
 
My stats show that the last max point holders for sheep should last for 47 more years...that mean everyone with less than max points will affectively have zero points for sheep for 47 more years :(

I wouldn't go as far as saying 0 points for folks with less than max points. Less than max applicants still have a chance, albeit low!!

I have a buddy that has drawn both Likely Tables pronghorn and Hunter Liggett bull elk with less than max points!!
 
Less than max point holders have the exact same odds as those that have zero points. So effectively, they have zero points when it comes to sheep.
 

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